Key Focus: Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Speech
With key US economic data delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown, global investors are turning their attention to remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, especially Fed Chair Jerome Powell, scheduled for Thursday. Powell is set to deliver opening remarks via pre-recorded video at the Community Bank Conference in Washington, while other Fed members — Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, and Michael Barr — are also expected to speak throughout the day.
US Dollar Holds Firm Amid Uncertainty
After three straight sessions of gains, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains stable near 99.00 in early European trading. The minutes from the Fed’s September meeting, released late Wednesday, revealed that policymakers are inclined toward additional rate cuts later this year. Officials cited labor market risks and a more balanced inflation outlook as key factors influencing this stance.
USD Weekly Performance vs Major Currencies
The US Dollar outperformed most major currencies this week, with the Japanese Yen being the weakest against the greenback.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.92% | 0.67% | 2.39% | 0.01% | 0.09% | 0.82% | 0.83% | |
| EUR | -0.92% | -0.35% | 1.35% | -0.93% | -0.87% | -0.14% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | -0.67% | 0.35% | 1.84% | -0.58% | -0.52% | 0.21% | 0.23% | |
| JPY | -2.39% | -1.35% | -1.84% | -2.28% | -2.29% | -1.60% | -1.55% |
💡 Tip: In the currency heat map, pick the base currency from the left and move horizontally to the quote currency to see the percentage change.
Government Shutdown Update: Senate Blocks Funding Bill
The US Senate once again failed to pass the Republican stopgap funding bill, with a 54–45 vote on Wednesday. President Donald Trump reassured the public that most federal employees affected by the shutdown will receive back pay once operations resume.
Early Thursday, Trump announced a peace agreement between Israel and Hamas, with hostages potentially being released by Monday. Qatar media confirmed that the deal includes both hostage releases and Israeli troop withdrawals. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to present the plan to parliament for approval later today.
Following this news, US stock index futures turned slightly positive in early trading.
Major Currency Pairs & Commodities Outlook
- EUR/USD: The pair remains under pressure, trading near 1.1600 in the European session. Traders await the ECB September meeting minutes for further direction.
- GBP/USD: The British Pound continues to trade below 1.3400, reflecting sustained bearish sentiment.
- USD/JPY: The pair extends its bullish rally, trading above 153.00, its highest level since mid-February.
- Gold Prices: After climbing more than 1% on Wednesday, gold prices eased slightly as geopolitical tensions cooled, but remain comfortably above $4,000.
Market Outlook
Today’s market sentiment is likely to be shaped by Fed commentary and developments in Washington. With economic data releases delayed, Powell’s speech and the government funding negotiations will play a critical role in driving forex volatility and investor sentiment across global markets.
